Brazil election heads to run-off after Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in first round

Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, leading incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Neither candidate secured a majority, so 25 October will bring a run-off.

With almost all votes counted, Bolsonaro had 47% and Lula 45%. Bolsonaro’s result exceeded expectations after Lula held a narrow lead during much of the campaign.

Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party also won the largest number of governors, senators and federal deputies in the results reported so far, giving it a likely position of influence in Congress.

Candidates and political divide

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for masterminding a failed coup after losing the 2022 election. Jair Bolsonaro was barred from seeking re-election and endorsed his eldest son instead.

Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth presidential term. After voting, he framed the choice as one between democracy and “barbarism”, but later called the result unexpected while insisting that the race was not over.

Bolsonaro said he wanted to “free the Brazilian people” and expressed confidence in winning the run-off in three weeks. He is stronger in the south, among wealthier voters and evangelical Christians, while Lula is more popular in the poorer northeast, among low-income voters, Catholics and women.

Economy, crime and corruption

Sovereignty, crime, the economy and corruption were major campaign issues. Bolsonaro pledged a public debt ceiling, spending cuts, changes to welfare programmes and stronger support for the critical minerals sector.

He also promised to designate Brazilian gangs as terrorist organisations and build maximum-security prisons. Lula has backed reforms targeting organised crime’s financial networks, better homicide investigations and prison investment.

Corruption became a central issue after the case of banker Daniel Vorcaro, who was jailed over one of Brazil’s largest financial frauds. Bolsonaro acknowledged asking Vorcaro to finance a biopic about his father; recordings referred to 134 million reais, or $25.9m.

Relations with the United States

The president of Brazil’s supreme electoral court said no evidence of international interference had been found. Lula had accused the United States of trying to influence Brazil’s elections, a claim Washington denied.

A Flávio Bolsonaro victory would likely bring Brazil closer to the United States and could see it join the “Shield of Americas” coalition against narco-trafficking, the source reported. No decision for Brazil to join the coalition has been announced.