Flavio Bolsonaro beat Brazil’s polling expectations and advanced to the runoff

Flavio Bolsonaro unexpectedly finished first in Brazil’s presidential election first round, ahead of incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro won about 47% of the vote, compared with Lula’s 45%, sending the two candidates to a runoff in three weeks.

The result contradicted most recent polls, which had projected Lula to lead by roughly three percentage points. Political analysts said some voters who had supported smaller right-wing candidates may have consolidated behind Bolsonaro late in the campaign.

The Banco Master scandal and frustration over the economy and public security may also have shaped the result.

Right-wing voters consolidated early

Carlos Pereira, a political scientist at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, said supporters of smaller right-wing candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, may have made a strategic choice to back Bolsonaro in the first round rather than wait for the runoff.

Analyst Rafael Favetti told Reuters that some support Bolsonaro would normally have gained only in a second round had already been “front-loaded”. That could leave him with less room to broaden his coalition.

Banco Master scandal entered the race

Pereira identified the Banco Master scandal — an alleged banking fraud case involving figures across the political spectrum — as another possible factor in the final weeks.

Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes was linked to the case through allegations of improper ties to bank owner Daniel Vorcaro. Moraes has denied the allegations. Flavio Bolsonaro is also under investigation over claims that he sought money from Vorcaro to finance a film about his father; he denies wrongdoing.

A September Datafolha poll found that 34% of respondents associated the scandal more with the left, while 27% linked it more to the right. Historian Andre Pagliarini said the controversy may have damaged Lula, although Flavio Bolsonaro himself was directly implicated in the case in a way Lula was not.

Economic frustration remains strong

Brazil has recorded low unemployment, reduced inequality and easing inflation, but many voters still feel pressure from high food prices and household debt. A Quaest poll in September found that nearly half of respondents believed the economy had worsened over the previous year, while only 19% said it had improved.

Pagliarini said the right had turned frustration over debt, insecurity and political conflict into a clear political identity. He also argued that polls may have underestimated the commitment of voters already leaning right.

Lula faces a difficult arithmetic

Lula has three weeks to close a gap of about 2.2 million votes. Around 9 million votes went to other candidates in the first round, while more than 33.4 million Brazilians abstained — 28% of registered voters.

The president’s campaign is preparing a new communications team. Pagliarini said Lula would need to attract some supporters of minor candidates and abstainers while seeking more votes in the northeast, his strongest region.