US midterms will decide whether Trump keeps control of Congress

US midterm elections on November 3 will determine the composition of Congress for the remainder of Donald Trump’s presidency. Republicans currently control both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

All 435 House seats are being contested. Cook Political Report classifies 21 districts as competitive: Republicans currently hold 15 of them and Democrats hold six.

The House majority is razor-thin

Republicans have 218 representatives—the exact number required for control—plus an independent member who votes with them. Cook Political Report estimates Democrats could take the House by winning five competitive districts and retaining 28 seats considered likely or leaning Democratic.

Historically, the president’s party loses an average of 27 House seats in midterms. In data going back to 1934, it increased its representation in only three of 23 elections.

Republicans hold a Senate cushion

Republicans control 53 of the Senate’s 100 seats. Democrats hold 45, while two independents caucus with them. Thirty-five seats are up for election, but Cook Political Report identifies only seven as competitive.

Republicans hold six of those seats and Democrats hold one. To take control, Democrats would need four competitive wins, four additional seats rated likely or leaning Democratic, and successful defenses of their own vulnerable seats.

Those races include Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed faces Trump ally Mike Rogers. Democrats are also targeting Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, states Trump won by double digits in 2024, and see an opportunity in Texas, where James Talarico is challenging state attorney general Ken Paxton.

Trump’s approval rating and voter concerns

According to Silver Bulletin, Trump began his second term with approval slightly above 50%, but it soon fell to about 40%. At a comparable point in Trump’s first term, approval was 43%; Joe Biden’s was 40%. In both cases, the president’s party lost the House but retained the Senate.

Cost of living is among voters’ leading concerns. After Trump said on February 24 that gasoline cost less than $2.30 per gallon, its price rose to $4 after war with Iran began four days later, according to the source. An August poll found that 63% disapproved of Trump’s handling of the situation.

Healthcare and immigration are also important issues. Democrats focus on insurance costs, while Trump presents lower illegal border-crossing figures as a success of his immigration policy.

The source says Democrats have an advantage in both polling and campaign finances, but notes that Trump has previously outperformed expectations. It does not provide a specific figure for the financial advantage.