Bitcoin fell after every US midterm election: what the 2026 pattern shows

Bitcoin entered a significant decline after every US midterm election since 2010. The next congressional vote is scheduled for November 3, 2026, and traders are again debating whether the historical sequence could repeat.

Data published on X by analyst Ali Martinez show declines of 72%, 65%, 52% and 27% after the 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 elections. Binance Research separately calculated full-calendar-year losses of 56% in 2014, 73% in 2018 and 64% in 2022.

Fourth-quarter declines

In the quarter immediately following the elections, Bitcoin fell 16.7% in 2014, 42.16% in 2018 and 14.75% in 2022. The 2022 decline was intensified by the collapse of FTX several days after the November 8 vote, with Bitcoin falling to about $16,000.

Martinez said the figures do not prove that elections caused the declines. Critics argue that the pattern may reflect the overlapping four-year election and Bitcoin-halving cycles. With only three complete observations—2014, 2018 and 2022—the relationship cannot be statistically established.

Gains followed earlier declines

Bitcoin rose by more than 50% over the following 12 months in each of the three previous cycles. Some traders therefore use a strategy of taking partial profits near the end of October and buying again after the election.

At the start of October 2026, Bitcoin had pulled back from a recent high of about $87,400. Martinez identified the short-term-holder cost basis near $73,000 as a potential support zone if the earlier pattern repeats.

Political uncertainty is another variable. In an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll conducted September 14–15, 45% of voters described their vote as “against Trump,” compared with 24% who described it as “for Trump.” The figures do not establish that a possible Republican defeat would trigger a Bitcoin sell-off.

Analysts caution that the historical sequence is a reason for vigilance, not a guaranteed forecast. Market conditions in 2026 also differ from earlier cycles because of the substantial presence of spot ETFs and institutional investors.