Tigray offensive in Ethiopia fuels fears of a return to civil war

Fears of a renewed civil war are growing in Ethiopia after Tigray forces launched attacks in the neighbouring states of Afar and Amhara and armed groups formed an alliance seeking to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.

On Sunday, seven armed groups, including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), announced the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival. On Wednesday, the TPLF seized three airports from federal police.

Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to the region because of the situation. Flights to the historic town of Lalibela were also halted on Thursday after fighting broke out nearby.

Fighting along Tigray’s borders

A humanitarian source in Afar told AFP that TPLF forces carried out heavy artillery attacks near Yallo while trying to take the town. A foreign security source confirmed to AFP that Abala, on the Tigray-Afar border, had been captured and said fighting was taking place around the Amhara town of Weldiya, one of the few routes to the capital.

TPLF vice-president Amanuel Assefa told AFP that Tigrayan forces were fighting alongside local armed groups in Afar and Amhara. He described the situation as full-blown war.

Army reports repelled attacks

Ethiopia’s army publicly addressed the fighting for the first time on Thursday, saying it had foiled the offensive. It said more than 500 enemy fighters had been killed, wounded or captured.

Speaking at the UN General Assembly, Ethiopian President Taye Atske-Selassie Amde accused “forces of destruction and mayhem” and “adversarial elements” of interfering in the country’s internal affairs. Abiy’s spokesperson, Billene Seyoum, said alliance members had been cooperating for some time with financial backing from Eritrea, which has repeatedly denied such accusations.

Fears of a humanitarian crisis

People in Tigray have been stocking up on food and cash. A resident of Adigrat, near the Eritrean border, told Reuters that panic-buying had emptied shops, while food and essential medicines were becoming scarce and expensive. Residents fear a siege similar to the one experienced during the previous war.

About 600,000 people died in the 2020–22 civil war. Tigray was largely cut off from the outside world, and restrictions on food, cash and medicine pushed hundreds of thousands of people into famine-like conditions.

The renewed fighting is the most serious challenge yet to the 2022 Pretoria agreement that ended the war. The African Union urged maximum restraint and a return to direct talks, while the EU called for immediate de-escalation and renewed commitment to the agreement.