Polymarket recorded more than $600 million in election trading after votes ended
More than $600 million in contracts changed hands across two global election markets on Polymarket’s offshore platform after the elections had ended. Experts noted that much of the activity focused on candidates who ultimately lost.
More than $600 million in contracts changed hands across two global election markets on Polymarket’s offshore platform after the elections had ended. Most of the trading involved long-shot candidates who ultimately lost.
The clearest example involved Ethiopia’s federal election. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party won 438 parliamentary seats, while the closest competitor took 13.
Ethiopia election market activity
Contracts on Ahmed winning attracted only $173,000 in trading. By contrast, more than $41 million was traded on his chief of staff, Shimelis Abdisa, becoming the country’s next leader.
The market’s total trading volume exceeded $285 million, with nearly all of it tied to candidates who did not win.
Repeated trades between accounts
Former Polymarket trader Chris Park, who now runs prediction-market forensic analysis firm MSR Decode, said about $284 million came from pairs of accounts repeatedly buying and selling contracts with one another.
Rajiv Sethi, a Barnard College economics professor who researches prediction markets, said the pattern indicated volume manipulation. The source does not identify an alleged organiser or report an official finding on the transactions.
What we know
- More than $600 million was traded across two Polymarket election markets after voting ended.
- Only $173,000 was traded on Abiy Ahmed winning, although his party secured 438 seats.
- About $284 million came from repeated transactions between pairs of accounts, Chris Park said.
- Economist Rajiv Sethi described the pattern as volume manipulation.
Trust: Single source
- The story relies on one publisher. A second independent confirmation has not been established from the cited sources.
- Sources: Ars Technica.
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