Lancet assessment: Nuclear war and malicious AI use could end humanity by 2100

Nuclear war and malicious use of artificial intelligence, including to create biological weapons, could cause human extinction within the next 75 years. That is the conclusion of the Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health.

The report says the probability of these scenarios remains low, but their consequences could be catastrophic. Nuclear conflict could inject particles into the upper atmosphere, blocking sunlight and causing famine, while AI could be used to develop biological weapons.

17 threats to global health

The commission assessed threats by estimating years of healthy life lost through illness, disability or premature death. Its list also includes air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition, climate breakdown, conventional conflict, declining overseas aid, alcohol use, high blood pressure, income inequality, low educational attainment, naturally occurring pandemics, obesity, poor mental health, smoking and unhealthy ageing.

Threats capable of causing more than 1 billion cumulative disability-adjusted life years were classified as “major catastrophic threats”. To qualify, a risk also had to have potential solutions.

Climate and international aid

Limiting global heating to about 1.8°C instead of 4.4°C could prevent 1.89 billion years of healthy life from being lost, according to the report’s modelling.

A collapse or steep reduction in international health aid could cause up to 1.5 billion disability-adjusted life years to be lost by 2100. Nearly 70% of those losses would occur in sub-Saharan Africa, which also bears the greatest burden of childhood malnutrition.

Non-communicable diseases, including obesity and poor mental health, are the dominant threats in higher-income regions. In lower-income regions, health loss is driven substantially by low educational attainment.

The commission comprises 35 experts. Its findings will be presented on Sunday at the World Health Summit in Berlin, and the assessment is to be updated annually with new data and emerging hazards.