Israel election: Six possible paths to forming the next government

Israel will hold parliamentary elections on October 27. The vote for all 120 Knesset seats will be the first since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the wider regional war that followed.

Polls project 52 seats for the opposition bloc and 50 for Netanyahu’s religious-nationalist alliance. No Israeli party has won an outright majority of 61 seats, making coalition talks central to the outcome.

Netanyahu’s traditional allies

Netanyahu could remain prime minister if Likud secures enough support from existing allies or new partners. His traditional allies include National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism.

The ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism could also be pivotal. Both have joined Netanyahu-led coalitions several times, but most recently left in 2025.

Opposition alliance and candidates

In September, four opposition parties — Yashar, the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu and the Together alliance — signed a non-aggression pact aimed at removing Netanyahu. They have not named a joint candidate for prime minister; former army chief Gadi Eisenkot is viewed as the leading possibility. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett is another potential candidate.

Arab-led parties may decide the result

The Joint List and Ra’am, which represent Israel’s Palestinian citizens — about 20% of the population — are projected to win roughly 13 seats. Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas has signalled that he could again join a governing coalition if the opposition needs additional support.

Abbas has identified combating violent crime in Palestinian communities and addressing discriminatory policies, including housing, as priorities. Most opposition leaders, including Eisenkot, have ruled out such an alliance.

The Joint List has also offered possible outside support without joining the government. It has demanded a path toward Palestinian statehood and action against organised crime, but such an arrangement would leave the coalition vulnerable to defections and disputes.

Other post-election options

The parties could form a national unity government or agree to rotate the premiership. Netanyahu and Benny Gantz reached a rotation deal in 2020, but their coalition collapsed before Gantz could take over. Bennett and Yair Lapid used a similar arrangement in 2021.

If coalition talks fail, lawmakers could back another candidate from Netanyahu’s camp or the opposition. Without sufficient support, Israel could hold another election; Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister until a new government took office.