Labour insiders fear budget will not leave voters better off by next election

Labour insiders fear the 28 October budget will not give voters a strong enough sense of change, putting pressure on the government’s main test: tackling the cost of living.

The government is preparing household support, including lower energy bills, alongside further help for small businesses. Inflation and higher borrowing costs are believed to have created a £12bn hole in the public finances.

Downing Street describes its approach as “everyday fixes”, with proposals including rules for car-parking apps and unbranded school uniforms. Strategists say such measures generated 85 million views across social platforms last week.

Concerns over the budget’s scale

Some Labour MPs believe small measures cannot substitute for medium-term change. One party insider warned that failure to leave voters better off by the next election would put Labour in an extremely difficult position.

Government figures also acknowledge the need to begin longer-term changes in the budget. Sources said decisions on raising additional revenue for next year’s spending review may be deferred until then.

Making the case for wider plans

Prime Minister Andy Burnham is promoting a broader programme covering social care, the pensions triple lock, relations with the EU and electoral reform. Polling presented to ministers showed support for the social care policy rose by a quarter after voters watched a video explaining the plan.

Downing Street expects difficult days after the budget but is relying on Burnham’s communication skills. The government is also preparing for attacks from the Conservatives and Reform UK over welfare; the Milburn and Timms reviews are due shortly after the budget statement.