Brazil’s abstaining voters could decide a tightly contested 2026 presidential runoff

About 33.4 million Brazilian adults skipped the first round of the presidential election. The 21 percent abstention rate was the highest for a general election since 1998.

The runoff pits incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro won 47 percent of votes cast in the first round and Lula won 45 percent, leaving a gap of 2.2 million ballots among more than 158.7 million registered voters.

A Quaest poll released on Wednesday found the race in a statistical tie: 50.5 percent of respondents backed Bolsonaro and 49.5 percent backed Lula. Both figures were within the poll’s margin of error.

Why voters stayed away

Political scientists caution that abstainers are not a single political bloc. Some reject both candidates, while others are uninterested in politics or face practical barriers involving work, family care, relocation without updating voter registration or long journeys to polling stations.

Voting is compulsory for most adults, but about 21 million of Brazil’s 158.7 million voters are not legally required to participate. They include 16- and 17-year-olds, people aged 70 or older and those who cannot read or write.

Voters who miss an election without justification can face a fine of up to 3.51 Brazilian reais. After three consecutive missed elections, their registration can be cancelled; unpaid fines can also block access to passports and other identity documents.

Campaigns target abstainers

Bolsonaro’s campaign has promised new tax breaks to support the economy. He has also pledged to address the legal situation of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence after being convicted over a coup plot.

Lula has made reducing abstention a central part of his runoff campaign. His team has promoted his work to end Brazil’s six-day workweek and proposed free public transport on weekends and debt relief for small-scale entrepreneurs.

Political scientist Mayra Goulart said such measures could have more influence on people uninterested in politics than on voters who reject both candidates.

Bolsonaro leads first-round precedent

Bolsonaro has an advantage beyond his first-round result: some voters who supported eliminated right-wing candidates may move to his camp. Experts estimate that group at nearly 8 percent of the vote.

Since Brazil returned to direct presidential elections in 1989, no candidate who trailed in the first round has won the runoff. Goulart cautioned, however, that a historical pattern does not make the outcome inevitable.