Crude oil exports through Strait of Hormuz nearly return to pre-war levels

Crude oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz region have nearly recovered to levels seen before the war with Iran. Producers and shipping companies are using pipelines, ship-to-ship transfers and other workarounds.

Kpler data showed that at least 16.5m barrels a day left the region in September, 10.5m bpd above the March average. The war began on 28 February after US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

Pipelines and tanker transfers

About 40% of the region’s crude is now moved without transiting the strait, compared with 17% before the war. Saudi Arabia restarted its east-west pipeline in late September after drone damage, allowing exports to resume from the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

Most crude still passing through the strait is carried by a shuttle fleet, largely very large crude carriers, with satellite transponders switched off. Cargo is transferred to other tankers in open water, usually near Oman or Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. More than 70% of crude passing through the strait changed ships in August, compared with almost none before the war.

Refined products remain constrained

The recovery has been uneven, with refined-product supplies still restricted. Kpler recorded a seven-day average of 677,000 bpd on Monday, compared with 3.6m bpd before the conflict.

The average UK diesel price reached a record 199.18 pence a litre on Monday, while some motorists reported prices above £2 at individual forecourts.

Threat to vessels persists

Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, said the recovery reflected more complex operations and higher costs rather than the disappearance of danger. Three Liberian-flagged tankers were hit by projectiles while transiting the strait on Tuesday.

Brent crude rose 3% to $101 a barrel on Thursday, briefly moving back above $100. Traders weighed the partial recovery in Middle East exports against uncertainty over a long-term resolution to the conflict and reports that China had suspended oil-product exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau.