Brazil’s election could reshape the balance between Latin America’s left and right

Brazilians vote on Sunday in a presidential election pitting incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Polls show a closely divided race between the two leading candidates.

Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, represents the far right; his father is under house arrest after being convicted of attempting a coup to overturn his defeat in the 2022 election.

If no candidate wins more than half the vote, a runoff will be held on 25 October. Other candidates are running, but the campaign has become sharply polarised around the two frontrunners.

Lula and Trump’s regional alliance

Analysts see Brazil as one of the few countries in the region still able to resist Donald Trump’s influence. Pedro Telles, a professor at FGV, said a Flávio Bolsonaro victory would be a major setback for the left and a boost to the global far-right agenda.

Bolsonaro has pledged to join the Shield of the Americas, a 15-country coalition that Trump links to the fight against drug cartels. Lula has raised sovereignty concerns over the initiative and criticised US operations that have killed more than 230 people.

Washington also sought privileged access to Brazil’s rare earths and critical minerals in exchange for not imposing tariffs. Lula rejected the condition, while Bolsonaro presented the resources as a way to help the US reduce its dependence on China.

Economy and voter support

Unemployment, poverty and inflation have fallen in Brazil, while average incomes have risen. Household debt has also increased, with some voters blaming online betting, which Lula banned shortly before the election.

Lula’s campaign has faced investigations involving his son and a former aide. Analysts say Flávio’s support reflects both a transfer of his father’s voter base and opposition to Lula.

For some voters, removing Lula is the main consideration. Businesswoman Bruna Arguello said she would vote for Flávio even though her preferred candidate was former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado, who is polling at about 4%.

Actor Docy Moreira supports Lula and said she moved from Belo Horizonte to Luís Correia in Piauí after Jair Bolsonaro won the 2018 election. She said she would remain in Brazil even if the result went against her.