Brazilian Amazon deforestation hits record low ahead of pivotal runoff

Deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon fell by 41.8% over the past year to 3,335 square kilometres. The government’s Prodes satellite system recorded the lowest level since measurements began in 1988.

The result was 1,236 square kilometres below the previous record low—an area roughly the size of Rio de Janeiro. Since 2022, the last year before Lula’s administration began, the rate has fallen by 71.2%.

Three states record the largest shares

Pará accounted for 33.9% of Amazon deforestation, followed by Mato Grosso at 25.5% and Amazonas at 15.7%. Even in those states, the figures fell by more than 45% from the previous year. Roraima was the only state where deforestation increased, rising by 0.4%.

The National Institute for Space Research attributed the broader decline to stronger enforcement and state investment in environmental agencies.

Cerrado deforestation also declines

The neighbouring Cerrado biome, a savannah region, recorded its lowest annual deforestation since 2001, at 5,516 square kilometres. Over the past four years, deforestation there has fallen by 48.4%.

The data was released ahead of the presidential runoff on 25 October. Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is facing Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Candidates offer sharply different approaches

During Jair Bolsonaro’s 2019–23 term, Amazon deforestation rose by 59.5%. The report links that increase to cuts affecting forest-protection agencies, weaker enforcement of environmental penalties and encouragement for illegal miners, loggers and land grabbers.

Flávio Bolsonaro has sought support from major landowners and other extractive interests, while his manifesto reportedly does not address the climate crisis. Former environment minister Marina Silva said he could continue his father’s approach to the Amazon.

Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of Climate Observatory, said the figures showed that ending forest destruction was possible, but that the outcome would depend on the election.